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P03

Statistics & Probability for Decisions

Uncertainty is everywhere in business. Learn to think in probabilities, read data and avoid the classic traps.

Start the course →10 lessons · first 2 free
  1. Thinking in ProbabilitiesBusiness is a game of chances, not certainties. See why small numbers bounce around, how chances combine, and why "it'll probably be fine" needs a number. · 11 minFree
  2. Expected Value: The Manager's SuperpowerWeigh every possible outcome by how likely it is, add them up, and you can compare any two risky choices on one number. Then check you can survive the bad draws. · 12 minFree
  3. Spread and RiskTwo choices can have the same average and completely different risk. Learn to see the spread, measure it, and plan stock and cash for it. · 11 min🔒 VIP
  4. The Bell CurveAdd up lots of small random things and a bell shape appears, even when each thing is lopsided. Learn the 68–95 rule and use it to plan staff, stock and promises. · 12 min🔒 VIP
  5. Samples and SurveysYou can learn a lot from asking a few hundred people, if you ask the right ones. See how sample size shrinks the error, and how a biased sample stays wrong however big it gets. · 12 min🔒 VIP
  6. Confidence: How Sure Are We?Every number from a sample comes with an invisible range. Learn to draw it, read it, and work out how much data you need before you decide. · 12 min🔒 VIP
  7. A/B TestsShow half your customers version A and half version B, and let their behaviour decide. The simplest, most powerful experiment in business, and the three ways people get it wrong. · 12 min🔒 VIP
  8. Correlation Isn't CausationTwo numbers moving together doesn't mean one causes the other. Learn the three usual culprits (a hidden cause, reverse direction, pure chance) and the one reliable fix. · 12 min🔒 VIP
  9. Base Rates and BayesA test that's "90% accurate" can still be wrong most of the time it raises an alarm. Count it out with real numbers and you'll never be fooled by it again. · 12 min🔒 VIP
  10. Boss: Should We Launch?Nina's biggest bet yet: a pet-safe plant box. Simulate the launch, run a test, update the odds, and decide whether the test was even worth paying for. Every tool in this course, in one decision. · 16 min🔒 VIP